Looking good in the tariff dispute arena today. Reports tell of a calming between China and the US.
We read a lot, and the media is reporting a calming between China and America. We are of the opinion that no such cooling is underway as we have seen no evidence other than reports in the media. They could be true or they could reflect the market’s newly found footing. The US yesterday and Asia today began buying in unison and the European markets just have to follow on to give battered traders the pause they have needed these last two months. We are long he Eurozone indices today and very likely to be so the US indices in the afternoon. It’s a funny thing about the relationship between the media and the markets. The media, with due respect, get it wrong plenty. They operate in the same environment we all do. We read what we think is important, try to avoid unnecessary distractions by what we sense is likely to be unreliable and make our judgements from there. We make wrong decisions in the markets, the media write the wrong stories and misinform. It’s an important behavior of the market trading crowd to fully grasp. Its one Mr. Soros termed Reflexivity. It means that the market reacts to its reactions. In other words, if it has more confidence that a phenomenon is indeed occurring it will follow that occurrence with greater interest and that greater interest will generate more interest. Such is the case in a slide like the one we have all had the gut wrenching pleasure to be strapped into these long last two months. Whether the two sniping trading partners are indeed cooling their slapping and counter slapping each other with damaging taxes on each other’s goods, or not, the market has shown that it believes that it has and has put money back in. For now. This is no sign to pile back in. Not by a long shot. It is however an actionable example of this phenomenon. Something like, truth is what you believe it to be. Not reassuring in a world of uncertainty. But, you can make money applying the idea. Trade with confidence Ladies and Gentlemen.
The DAX has a bullish moving average crossover underway and looks like it will keep headed upwards to push though the 12332 resistance zone. This will reinforce confidence and make New York’s work easier. We are long the index looking to take some profits out at the 12305, 12340 levels with protective stops at 12203 – 12160. These trades are for the very short term only. This clutching on to current prices without falling has not been going on long enough to take positions out too far. Hourly end of day maximum.
Crude WTI Down.
The 63.00 per barrel is under threat. No that this is any real bargain price. We feel that the price is still above what it would be were OPEC and its associated cartelists not keeping the faucets tightened. Still the fall is welcome ad solid we’re looking for profit on this trade in the 62.93 – 62.66 zone and placing stops between 63.32 and 63.41. This is now shaping up to be strong enough to carry on for a week or more. That is the outside on this trade. Daily to weekly positions are where we are positioned.
For the fourth time since August Gold has attempted and failed to get above the 1356 price. It ain’t doing it. As its pride in dollars slides down, the value of the South African rand tends to inversely follow suit. We are long the USD ZAR for hour and end of day positons with our profit target at between 12.025 and 12.034 and stops between 11.998 and 11.981. Market stabilizing, Gold falling, Rand weakening. All of a piece. USDZAR UP.