Gold is trading sideways in the Thursday session. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1290.46, down 0.03% on the day. On the release front, key U.S indicators were a mix. Unemployment claims climbed to 222 thousand, above the estimate of 216 thousand. This was the highest reading in 4 weeks. There was much better news on the manufacturing front, as Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped t0 34.4, crushing the estimate of 21.1 points. This was the strongest gain since February 2017.
In the U.S, retail sales and core retail sales posted gains in April, although both indicators fell short of the estimates. Still, consumer spending is improving after a sluggish first quarter. Investors liked what they saw, and the US dollar was broadly higher on Tuesday. At the same time, a new concern is higher gas prices, which could put a dent in consumers’ wallets and hurt spending. Oil prices have hit their highest levels in over 3 years, and with the US leaving the Iran nuclear deal and escalating tensions in the Middle East, gasoline prices could remain at high levels.
The U.S economy continues to perform well, but the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent remains elusive. CPI rebounded with a gain of 0.2%, but this fell short of the estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI edged lower to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. Inflation levels will be an important factor for the Fed in its monetary policy projection, which remains at two more hikes in 2018. The odds of a rate hike at the June hike stands close to 100%, and the US dollar could continue to make broad gains as we get closer to the June policy meeting.
Thursday (May 17)
- 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.1. Actual 34.4
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 216K. Actual 221
- 10:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
- 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 105B. Actual 106B
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
XAU/USD for Thursday, May 17, 2018
XAU/USD May 17 at 12:20 DST
Open: 1290.70 High: 1294.47 Low: 1285.39 Close: 1290.46
- XAU/USD ticked higher in the Asian session and retracted in European trade. XAU/USD is steady
- in the North American session
- XAU/USD Fundamentals
- 1285 is providing support
- 1307 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1285 to 1307
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1285, 1260 and 1236
- Above: 1307, 1337, 1375 and 1416
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Thursday session. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (71%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD breaking out and moving lower.